COVID-19 inequalities in England: a mathematical modelling study of transmission risk and clinical vulnerability by socioeconomic status.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major inequalities in infection and disease burden between areas of varying socioeconomic deprivation in many countries, including England. Areas of higher deprivation tend to have a different population structure-generally younger-which can increase viral transmission due to higher contact rates in school-going children and working-age adults. Higher deprivation is also associated with a higher presence of chronic comorbidities, which were convincingly demonstrated to be risk factors for severe COVID-19 disease. These two major factors need to be combined to better understand and quantify their relative importance in the observed COVID-19 inequalities. METHODS: We used UK Census data on health status and demography stratified by decile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), which is a measure of socioeconomic deprivation. We calculated epidemiological impact using an age-stratified COVID-19 transmission model, which incorporated different contact patterns and clinical health profiles by decile. To separate the contribution of each factor, we considered a scenario where the clinical health profile of all deciles was at the level of the least deprived. We also considered the effectiveness of school closures and vaccination of over 65-year-olds in each decile. RESULTS: In the modelled epidemics in urban areas, the most deprived decile experienced 9% more infections, 13% more clinical cases, and a 97% larger peak clinical size than the least deprived; we found similar inequalities in rural areas. Twenty-one per cent of clinical cases and 16% of deaths in England observed under the model assumptions would not occur if all deciles experienced the clinical health profile of the least deprived decile. We found that more deaths were prevented in more affluent areas during school closures and vaccination rollouts. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that both clinical and demographic factors synergise to generate health inequalities in COVID-19, that improving the clinical health profile of populations would increase health equity, and that some interventions can increase health inequalities.

Challenges and patient outcomes in chronic subdural haematoma at the level of a regional care system A multi-centre, mixed-methods study from the East of England.

BACKGROUND: Chronic subdural haematoma (cSDH) is a common neurosurgical pathology affecting older patients with other health conditions. A significant proportion (up-to 90%) of referrals for surgery in neurosciences units (NSU) come from secondary care. However, the organisation of this care and the experience of patients repatriated to non-specialist centres are currently unclear. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to clarify patient outcome in non-specialist centres following NSU discharge for cSDH surgery and to understand key system challenges. The study was set within a representative neurosurgical care system in the east of England. DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of patients referred for cSDH surgery. Alongside case record review, patient and staff experience were explored using surveys as well as an interactive c-design workshop. Challenges were identified from thematic analysis of survey responses and triangulated by focussed workshop discussions. RESULTS: Data on 381 patients referred for cSDH surgery from six centres was reviewed. One hundred and fifty-six (41%) patients were repatriated following surgery. Sixty-one (39%) of those repatriated suffered an inpatient complication (new infection, troponin rise or renal injury) following NSU discharge, with 58 requiring institutional discharge or new care. Surveys for staff (n = 42) and patients (n = 209) identified that resourcing, communication, and inter-hospital distance posed care challenges. This was corroborated through workshop discussions with stakeholders from two institutions. CONCLUSIONS: A significant amount of perioperative care for cSDH is delivered outside of specialist centres. Future improvement initiatives must recognise the system-wide nature of delivery and the challenges such an arrangement presents.

Trends in hospital admissions and prescribing due to diseases of the digestive system in England and Wales between 1999 and 2019: An ecological study.

This study aimed to investigate the trends in diseases of the digestive system hospital admissions (DDSHA) in England and Wales between (1999-2019). Secondary objectives were to investigate the type of admission and medication prescribing related to the digestive system in England. This is an ecological study using data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database and the Patient Episode Database between April 1999 and March 2019. The rate of hospital admissions with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was calculated by dividing the number of DDSHA by the mid-year population. The trend in hospital admissions was assessed using a Poisson model. Overall, the rate of DDSHA rose by 84.2% (from 2231.27 [95% CI 2227.26-2235.28] in 1999 to 4109.33 [95% CI 4104.29-4114.38] in 2019 per 100,000 persons, trend test, P < .001). The most remarkable rise in hospital admission was seen in liver diseases, followed by other diseases of intestines with 1.85-fold, and 1.59-fold, respectively. Between 2004 and 2019, the overall prescribing rate for medications related to the gastrointestinal system increased by 74.6%, and stoma care related medications prescribing rate increased by 2.25-fold, followed by drugs affecting intestinal secretions and antisecretory drugs and mucosal protectants. There was an increase in hospital admission rate due to GI diseases in the United Kingdom (UK) by 84.2% from 1999 to 2019. The most remarkable rise in the rate of hospital admissions was seen in diseases of the liver and intestine.

The role of depression in the association between mobilisation timing and live discharge after hip fracture surgery: Secondary analysis of the UK National Hip Fracture Database.

PURPOSE: The aim was to compare the probability of discharge after hip fracture surgery conditional on being alive and in hospital between patients mobilised within and beyond 36-hours of surgery across groups defined by depression. METHODS: Data were taken from the National Hip Fracture Database and included patients 60 years of age or older who underwent hip fracture surgery in England and Wales between 2014 and 2016. The conditional probability of postsurgical live discharge was estimated for patients mobilised early and for patients mobilised late across groups with and without depression. The association between mobilisation timing and the conditional probability of live discharge were also estimated separately through adjusted generalized linear models. RESULTS: Data were analysed for 116,274 patients. A diagnosis of depression was present in 8.31% patients. In those with depression, 7,412 (76.7%) patients mobilised early. In those without depression, 84,085 (78.9%) patients mobilised early. By day 30 after surgery, the adjusted odds ratio of discharge among those who mobilised early compared to late was 1.79 (95% CI: 1.56-2.05, p<0.001) and 1.92 (95% CI: 1.84-2.00, p<0.001) for those with and without depression, respectively. CONCLUSION: A similar proportion of patients with depression mobilised early after hip fracture surgery when compared to those without a diagnosis of depression. The association between mobilisation timing and time to live discharge was observed for patients with and without depression.

Quantifying the impact of hospital catchment area definitions on hospital admissions forecasts: COVID-19 in England, September 2020-April 2021.

BACKGROUND: Defining healthcare facility catchment areas is a key step in predicting future healthcare demand in epidemic settings. Forecasts of hospitalisations can be informed by leading indicators measured at the community level. However, this relies on the definition of so-called catchment areas or the geographies whose populations make up the patients admitted to a given hospital, which are often not well-defined. Little work has been done to quantify the impact of hospital catchment area definitions on healthcare demand forecasting. METHODS: We made forecasts of local-level hospital admissions using a scaled convolution of local cases (as defined by the hospital catchment area) and delay distribution. Hospital catchment area definitions were derived from either simple heuristics (in which people are admitted to their nearest hospital or any nearby hospital) or historical admissions data (all emergency or elective admissions in 2019, or COVID-19 admissions), plus a marginal baseline definition based on the distribution of all hospital admissions. We evaluated predictive performance using each hospital catchment area definition using the weighted interval score and considered how this changed by the length of the predictive horizon, the date on which the forecast was made, and by location. We also considered the change, if any, in the relative performance of each definition in retrospective vs. real-time settings, or at different spatial scales. RESULTS: The choice of hospital catchment area definition affected the accuracy of hospital admission forecasts. The definition based on COVID-19 admissions data resulted in the most accurate forecasts at both a 7- and 14-day horizon and was one of the top two best-performing definitions across forecast dates and locations. The "nearby" heuristic also performed well, but less consistently than the COVID-19 data definition. The marginal distribution baseline, which did not include any spatial information, was the lowest-ranked definition. The relative performance of the definitions was larger when using case forecasts compared to future observed cases. All results were consistent across spatial scales of the catchment area definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Using catchment area definitions derived from context-specific data can improve local-level hospital admission forecasts. Where context-specific data is not available, using catchment areas defined by carefully chosen heuristics is a sufficiently good substitute. There is clear value in understanding what drives local admissions patterns, and further research is needed to understand the impact of different catchment area definitions on forecast performance where case trends are more heterogeneous.

Characterising smoking and nicotine use behaviours among women of reproductive age: a 10-year population study in England.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking affects women's fertility and is associated with substantial risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study explored trends by socioeconomic position in patterns of smoking, use of non-combustible nicotine products, and quitting activity among women of reproductive age in England. METHODS: Data come from a nationally representative monthly cross-sectional survey. Between October 2013 and October 2023, 197,266 adults (≥ 18 years) were surveyed, of whom 44,052 were women of reproductive age (18-45 years). Main outcome measures were current smoking, vaping, and use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), heated tobacco products (HTPs), and nicotine pouches; mainly/exclusively smoking hand-rolled cigarettes and level of dependence among current smokers; past-year quit attempts among past-year smokers; and success of quit attempts among those who tried to quit. We modelled time trends in these outcomes, overall and by occupational social grade (ABC1 = more advantaged/C2DE = less advantaged). RESULTS: Smoking prevalence among women of reproductive age fell from 28.7% [95%CI = 26.3-31.2%] to 22.4% [19.6-25.5%] in social grades C2DE but there was an uncertain increase from 11.7% [10.2-13.5%] to 14.9% [13.4-16.6%] in ABC1. By contrast, among all adults and among men of the same age, smoking prevalence remained relatively stable in ABC1. Vaping prevalence among women of reproductive age more than tripled, from 5.1% [4.3-6.0%] to 19.7% [18.0-21.5%], with the absolute increase more pronounced among those in social grades C2DE (reaching 26.7%; 23.3-30.3%); these changes were larger than those observed among all adults but similar to those among men of the same age. The proportion of smokers mainly/exclusively smoking hand-rolled cigarettes increased from 40.5% [36.3-44.9%] to 61.4% [56.5-66.1%] among women of reproductive age; smaller increases were observed among all adults and among men of the same age. Patterns on other outcomes were largely similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among women of reproductive age, there appears to have been a rise in smoking prevalence in the more advantaged social grades over the past decade. Across social grades, there have been substantial increases in the proportion of women of reproductive age who vape and shifts from use of manufactured to hand-rolled cigarettes among those who smoke. These changes have been more pronounced than those observed in the general adult population over the same period.

Experiences of support for people who access voluntary, community and social enterprise (VCSE) organisations for self-harm: a qualitative study with stakeholder feedback.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of self-harm In England is rising, however contact with statutory services remains relatively low. There is growing recognition of the potential role voluntary, community and social enterprise sector (VCSE) organisations have in the provision of self-harm support. We aimed to explore individuals' experiences of using these services and the barriers and facilitators to accessing support. METHODS: Qualitative, online interviews with 23 adults (18+) who have accessed support from VCSE organisations for self-harm in the Yorkshire and the Humber region were undertaken. Interviews were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis was undertaken using NVivo software. RESULTS: Participants described how a lack of service flexibility and the perception that their individual needs were not being heard often made them less likely to engage with both statutory and VCSE organisations. The complexity of care pathways made it difficult for them to access appropriate support when required, as did a lack of awareness of the types of support available. Participants described how engagement was improved by services that fostered a sense of community. The delivery of peer support played a key role in creating this sense of belonging. Education and workplace settings were also viewed as key sources of support for individuals, with a lack of mental health literacy acting as a barrier to access in these environments. CONCLUSIONS: VCSE organisations can play a crucial role in the provision of support for self-harm, however, pathways into these services remain complex and links between statutory and non-statutory services need to be strengthened. The provision of peer support is viewed as a crucial component of effective support in VCSE organisations. Further supervision and training should be offered to those providing peer support to ensure that their own mental health is protected.

Geographies of alcohol and generation: Examining the decline in youth drinking in England through a spatial lens.

INTRODUCTION: While international literature addresses the links between youth culture and the decline in youth drinking, little research has engaged with scholarship on youth geographies to more fully disentangle these links. This article explores how the decline is connected to shifts in where young people access and drink alcohol. METHODS: Qualitative interviews were conducted with young people aged 12-19 (N = 96) and 29-35 (N = 17) years in England. The interviews explored the place of alcohol in everyday life, with younger participants discussing the present and older participants discussing their youth in the late 1990s to early 2000s. Data were analysed thematically. FINDINGS: Buying alcohol in shops and licensed premises was a common experience for older participants when they were teenagers but few younger participants discussed buying alcohol from commercial settings. Older participants also reflected positively on drinking in outdoor public spaces whereas younger participants, particularly those from working-class backgrounds, regarded this as morally suspect. Young participants instead accessed alcohol from parents and siblings, and often consumed it in their or others' homes in supervised or moderated ways, seeing this as positive and normative. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Spatial shifts in young people's drinking away from public spaces and toward the home appear an important part of a wider trend that renders youth drinking as increasingly moderate, risk-averse, incidental and mediated by parents, rather than excessive, transgressive and integral to youth culture.

Risk of multiple sclerosis in individuals with infectious mononucleosis: a national population-based cohort study using hospital records in England, 2003-2023.

BACKGROUND: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is thought to be a necessary causative agent in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). Infectious mononucleosis (IM), which occurs up to 70% of adolescents and young adults with primary EBV infection, appears to be a further risk factor but few studies have been highly powered enough to explore this association by time since IM diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to quantify the risk of MS in individuals with IM compared with the general population, with particular focus on time since IM diagnosis. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study using English national Hospital Episode Statistics from 2003 to 2023, patients with a hospital diagnosis of IM were compared with the general population for MS incidence. RESULTS: MS incidence in patients with IM was nearly three times higher than the general population after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.8, 95% confidence interval (CI = 2.3-3.4), driven by strong associations at long time intervals (>5 years) between IM diagnosis and subsequent MS diagnosis. CONCLUSION: While EBV infection may be a prerequisite for MS, the disease process of IM (i.e. the body's defective immune response to primary EBV infection) seems to be, in addition, implicated over the long term.

Faster detection of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases among care home staff in England through the combination of SARS-CoV-2 testing technologies.

To detect SARS-CoV-2 amongst asymptomatic care home staff in England, a dual-technology weekly testing regime was introduced on 23 December 2020. A lateral flow device (LFD) and quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) test were taken on the same day (day 0) and a midweek LFD test was taken three to four days later. We evaluated the effectiveness of using dual-technology to detect SARS-CoV-2 between December 2020 to April 2021. Viral concentrations derived from qRT-PCR were used to determine the probable stage of infection and likely level of infectiousness. Day 0 PCR detected 1,493 cases of COVID-19, of which 53% were in the early stages of infection with little to no risk of transmission. Day 0 LFD detected 83% of cases that were highly likely to be infectious. On average, LFD results were received 46.3 h earlier than PCR, enabling removal of likely infectious staff from the workplace quicker than by weekly PCR alone. Demonstrating the rapidity of LFDs to detect highly infectious cases could be combined with the ability of PCR to detect cases in the very early stages of infection. In practice, asymptomatic care home staff were removed from the workplace earlier, breaking potential chains of transmission.

Socioeconomic inequalities in accumulation of multimorbidity in England from 2019 to 2049: a microsimulation projection study.

BACKGROUND: There are socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and its accumulation across the life course. Estimates of multimorbidity prevalence in English primary care increased by more than two-thirds from 2004 to 2019. We developed a microsimulation model to quantify current and projected multimorbidity inequalities in the English adult population. METHODS: We used primary care data for adults in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database between 2004 and 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), to model time individuals spent in four health states (healthy, one chronic condition, basic multimorbidity [two or more chronic conditions], and complex multimorbidity [three or more chronic conditions affecting three or more body systems]) by sex, age, IMD quintile, birth cohort, and region. We applied these transition times in a stochastic dynamic continuous-time microsimulation model to Office for National Statistics population estimates for adults aged 30-90 years. We calculated projected prevalence and cumulative incident cases from 2019 to 2049 by IMD quintile, age group (younger than 65 years vs 65 years and older), and years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years. FINDINGS: Under the assumption that all chronic conditions were lifelong, and that once diagnosed there was no recovery, we projected prevalence of multimorbidity (basic or complex) increases by 34% from 53·8% in 2019 to 71·9% (95% uncertainty interval 71·8-72·0) in 2049. This rise equates to an 84% increase in the number of people with multimorbidity: from 19·2 million in 2019 to 35·3 million in 2049 (35·3 million to 35·4 million). This projected increase is greatest in the most deprived quintile, with an excess 1·07 million (1·04 million to 1·10 million) cumulative incident basic multimorbidity cases and 0·70 million (0·67 million to 0·74 million) complex multimorbidity cases over and above the projected cases for the least deprived quintile, largely driven by inequalities in those younger than 65 years. The median expected number of years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years in 2019 is 15·12 years (14·62-16·01) in the least deprived IMD quintile and 12·15 years (11·61-12·60) in the most deprived IMD quintile. INTERPRETATION: The number of people living with multimorbidity will probably increase substantially in the next 30 years, a continuation of past observed increases partly driven by changing population size and age structure. Inequalities in the multimorbidity burden increase at each stage of disease accumulation, and are projected to widen, particularly among the working-age population. Substantial action is needed now to address population health and to prepare health-care and social-care systems for coming decades. FUNDING: University of Liverpool and National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Public Health Research.

Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males. CONCLUSIONS: We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

Characteristics and circumstances of rail suicides in England 2019-2021: A cluster analysis and autopsy study.

BACKGROUND: Around 4 % of all suicide deaths in Great Britain occur on the railways. This exploratory study was designed to increase understanding of the individuals that take their lives in this way, and the circumstances of their death. METHOD: Data were obtained from fatality investigation files compiled by the British Transport Police (BTP) relating to suspected suicides on the mainline railway in England from April 2019 to March 2021. Cluster analysis was carried out to identify grouped associations of characteristics and circumstances relating to rail suicide. RESULTS: A total of 436 files were analysed, representing 93 % of all suspected railway suicides during this period. Cluster analysis identified four groups of almost equal size, distinguished principally by age, living arrangements, employment status and location of death. The study is novel in the way it integrates individual characteristics and circumstances of death. The identified clusters may provide a multidimensional way of conceptualising suicide risk that could inform more targeted interventions at rail locations. LIMITATIONS: A high proportion of missing data means that the findings need to be interpreted with caution. It also restricted the multivariate analysis to those categories of information for which sufficient information was available. CONCLUSION: The characteristics and circumstances of suicide deaths on the railways are complex and multifaceted. The typology identified in this study may help to target preventative strategies prior to the incident as well as at different location types.

Cervical cancer incidence, mortality, and burden in China: a time-trend analysis and comparison with England and India based on the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Cervical cancer is the fourth highest incidence of malignancy in the world and a common cause of cancer death in women. We assessed the trends of incidence and mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) in China, England and India from 1990 to 2030. Method: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We collected the number and rate of incidence, death and DALY from 1990 to 2019 and calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Further analysis was carried out by ages and years. We also collected attributable risk factors to cervical cancer. Finally, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to forecast trends in the rate of age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and age-standardized death (ASDR) the for the next decade. Result: Globally, the incidence of cervical cancer cases increased from 335,641.56 in 1990 to 565,540.89 in 2019. In 2019, the ASIR and ASDR of cervical cancer were higher than those of India but lower than those of England. Furthermore, unsafe sex and smoking emerge as prominent risk factors for cervical cancer. Over the next decade, ASIR and ASDR are expected to decline in China and England, while India's ASIR is still on an upward trend and ASDR is on a downward trend. Conclusion: The epidemiological data of cervical cancer in these three countries reflects the influence of different stages of development and healthcare systems. Trends over the next decade suggest that China and India still face a huge burden of cervical cancer. When England has made significant progress, China and India need to take more measures to improve the prevention and control of cervical cancer.

5-year mental health outcomes for children and adolescents presenting with psychiatric symptoms to general practitioners in England: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the clinical trajectories of children and adolescents who attend general practice (GP) with psychiatric symptoms. We aimed to examine 5-year service use in English primary care for children and adolescents with neurodevelopmental or mental health symptoms or diagnoses. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used anonymised primary care health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database (CPRD-Aurum). We identified children and adolescents (aged 3-18 years) presenting to primary care in England between Jan 1, 2000, and May 9, 2016, with a symptom or diagnosis of a mental health, behavioural, or neurodevelopmental condition. Participants were excluded if they had less than 1 year of follow-up. We followed up participants from their index date until either death, transfer out of the practice, or the end of data collection on May 5, 2021, and for trajectory analysis we limited follow-up to 5 years. We used group-based multi-trajectory models to identify clusters with similar trajectories over 5 years of follow-up for three primary outcomes: mental health-related GP contacts, psychotropic medication prescriptions, and specialist mental health-care contact. We did survival analysis to examine the associations between trajectory-group membership and hospital admission for self-harm or death by suicide, as indicators of severe psychiatric distress. FINDINGS: We included 369 340 children and adolescents, of whom 180 863 (49·0%) were girls, 188 438 (51·0%) were boys, 39 (<0·1%) were of indeterminate gender, 290 125 (78·6%) were White, 9161 (2·5%) were South Asian, 10 418 (2·8%) were Black, 8115 (2·2%) were of mixed ethnicity, and 8587 (2·3%) were other ethnicities, and the median age at index presentation was 13·6 years (IQR 8·4-16·7). In the best-fitting, seven-group, group-based multi-trajectory model, over a 5-year period, the largest group (low contact; 207 985 [51·2%]) had low rates of additional service contact or psychotropic prescriptions. The other trajectory groups were moderate, non-pharmacological contact (43 836 [13·0%]); declining contact (25 469 [8·7%]); year-4 escalating contact (18 277 [6·9%]); year-5 escalating contact (18 139; 5·2%); prolonged GP contact (32 147 [8·6%]); and prolonged specialist contact (23 487 [6·5%]). Non-White ethnicity and presentation in earlier study years (eg, 2000-2004) were associated with low-contact group membership. The prolonged specialist-contact group had the highest risk of hospital admission for self-harm (hazard ratio vs low-contact group 2·19 [95% CI 2·03-2·36]) and suicide (2·67 [1·72-4·14]). INTERPRETATION: Most children and adolescents presenting to primary care with psychiatric symptoms or diagnoses have low or declining rates of ongoing contact. If these trajectories reflect symptomatic improvement, these findings provide reassurance for children and adolescents and their caregivers. However, these trajectories might reflect an unmet need for some children and adolescents. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research and the Wellcome Trust.

Increased rates of hospital-onset Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia in National Health Service acute trusts in England between June 2020 and March 2021: a national surveillance review.

A large increase in hospital-onset and intensive-care-unit-onset Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia rates in English acute trusts was observed between 2020 and 2021, coinciding with reported increases in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and associated hospitalizations. Many of these S. aureus bacteraemia cases were defined as co-/secondary infections to COVID-19. Over the same period, increases in the percentage of ventilator-associated pneumonia-related bacteraemia were also found. The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have contributed to the increase in hospital-onset S. aureus bacteraemia in England; further studies are needed to better understand the impacts on patient outcomes.